Future chat group - Chapter 851 Bonds and Tone

CCB originally hoped to let Thunder bear all risks, and even definitely suffer losses, based on the first price offered by the sky.

Three months of bond interest and idle capital costs are the figures that the Thunder need to pay for this project.

Assuming that the annual interest rate is 6%, it will naturally be 1.5% for three months, and 100 yuan will be lost by 1.5 yuan. What is the concept? It is 300 minimum price changes, which is what people in the industry often call 300 points.

This is direct exploitation.

So the question is, why do we have to agree to 20 points later? The reason lies in the possible exposure and the strategic goals of state-owned institutions. They do not value the money, but want to gain status.

The national policy has been determined, and financial marketization is the general trend. State-owned and private financial institutions will definitely increase cooperation and communication. This time you got a profit of 300 points. Yes, you did make a profit, but so what? Everyone knows that this is not long-term, this is not a certain model, you only show your strength.

If I give you 20 points, add double options, add futures exercise, and add various detailed terms, it may become a method that will continue to be used. This is a long-term strategic goal.

So the question comes again, why does this create possible exposure? What does the possibility exposure mean to both parties?

CCB holds American-style options, which they can directly exercise before April 1, using futures contracts to capture the bond chips absorbed by the Thunder at a price 20 points lower than the market.

In other words, they can choose to take the position on April 1st. In doing so, they do not have to bear the risk exposure and directly make 20 points.

Another way is to take the bond position before April 1, which means they have to bear the risk exposure of 20 billion baht bonds. They first earn 20 points and then bear the risk of bond price changes.

It is well known that bond prices do not move much and tend to move steadily in the same direction within a certain time range.

A 100-yuan bond, with an annual interest rate of 6%, is worth 106 yuan one year later. Then it will increase in price by almost 0.0166 yuan a day, which is 0.5 yuan more in a month. If the value of money remains unchanged, it will rise like this. (There are some other calculation methods, which are omitted. This is best understood.)

But as long as it is a listed security, it will not be said that the price remains unchanged. If it does not change, you will end up with a gross market? The prices of things that can be bought and sold are in a state of change on the timeline.

To give a simple example, the bond issued on January 1 has a coupon rate of 6%. If you hold it for half a year, you calculate it to be 103 yuan. Then suddenly, the deposit interest rate changes, reaching an exaggerated 6% (actually unlikely) , you will find that, hey, if I use my money to deposit in the bank, I will get the same income as if I use it to buy bonds.

what to do? The bonds are sold in exchange for cash and placed in the bank to restore the liquidity of funds. In other words, the bonds depreciate.

Buying bonds is equivalent to sacrificing the liquidity of money. The part where the bond coupon rate is greater than the bank interest rate is to pay for liquidity. A smaller interest spread means a depreciation of liquidity, and a larger interest rate means an increase in value.

There is also inflation, which can also be said to be the change in the value of currency. You bought a bond with 100 yuan a year ago, and it will become 106 yuan a year later. However, the 106 yuan one year later cannot buy a bond that cost 100 yuan a year ago. items, which can also lead to changes in bond prices.

Therefore, the possible exposure caused by the contract is very easy to understand. The price changes. Zhao Weihua has the right to directly take the bond position held by Thunder in advance when he sees that the trend of change is obviously improving. If it rises, of course it will He makes more money.

If the trend of bond price changes is not obvious, or the bond price is bearish, then don’t move. Anyway, the contract signed by CCB and the central bank is not a fixed price contract, and the contract signed by CCB and Thunder is not a fixed price contract. They are guaranteed to make 20 points.

If the option is exercised before April 1st, the exposure will appear. If the option is exercised on April 1st, the exposure will be closed and the profit will be 20 points. This is a small hedging. The Thunder will undoubtedly have a complete disadvantage.

Paying 20 points is only one-fifteenth of the first opening price. The remaining range is the option terms that the Thunder obtained in exchange for possible high-quality positions.

Ye Liu said that Lei Hao used him as bait because Lei Hao’s report card was very dazzling. As long as Zhao Weihua exercises his rights in advance and gets more profits than 20 points, that will be political achievement. This model will become a fixed pattern in the future. , state-owned financial institutions will continue to use this model to suppress institutions such as Thunder.

But the Thunder are not without gains. At least they have obtained an acceptable contract model for themselves and latecomers. Compared with the price difference of several hundred points, the 20-point plus option method is already a “gentle knife”.

Everyone gives in, long-term cooperation, and setting the tone are what Lei Hao gets.

Looking at it from another angle, if everyone competes completely, the price difference to the central bank may be more than the current things, so… the central bank is still generous, unlike institutions such as China Construction Bank that value profits so much. What it wants is stability.

December 13, Wednesday morning, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Thunder.

During this period, Lei Hao rarely participated in the regular mid-week meetings, but he sometimes still found time to show up at meetings related to the investment department, just like the current internal meetings of the Fixed Income Department. Xia Yibei has not completely resigned, but only Because the fixed income departments of KH National Bank and Thunder have some overlap and have not been separated, he, a direct descendant of Lei Hao, must take power.

Regarding the cooperation with China Construction Bank and the business of the Reserve Management Department, Xia Yibei’s participation is indispensable, because as long as it is bonds, it has always been Xia Yibei’s domain.

In the conference room, the atmosphere was not so good. Although everyone knew that the contract between the group and China Construction Bank was an extremely rare and good contract, it was a contract that might damage Lei Hao’s aura.

“Twenty points, more than three months,” Xia Yibei was speaking. He did not look at Lei Hao, who was sitting in the main seat, but said to his old subordinates: “These are not matters! Even if there are Even if you risk losing your position at any time, we can still make it back!”

“In fact, we can put aside the contract with China Construction Bank. Indeed, our exposure has the risk of being closed at any time, but even so, our goal is very simple. To hold another position and open another exposure, we only need to put 20 points Just earn it back! This is the premise!”

“Even if our partners get a profit of more than 20 points, as long as we don’t make a loss, we are successful!”

“This can be seen as confrontation, but in fact, it is not confrontation. When we put aside the contract with CCB, we are individuals participating in the market independently, and our profits and losses are all up to us.”

Xia Yibei is setting the tone. From the Thunder’s point of view, this contract is to lay the foundation for obtaining information from the reserve structure adjustment in the future, so they gave way to CCB, but as long as there is a profit, no one can say that the Thunder Lost.

Lei Hao recognized Xia Yibei’s tone for fixed income subordinates, although he did not fully agree with this approach.