Future chat group - Chapter 854 You are the one being cheated

Bank deposit interest rates and bond prices are inversely related, with the former falling and the latter rising because the latter’s interest rate is fixed.

However, there is another problem: inflation!

Based on the situation in the Thai market, any financial practitioner who uses a calculator can come to a conclusion: if the Bank of Thailand dares to lower the benchmark interest rate, Thailand’s inflation rate will immediately rise.

With inflation, money is worthless. From another perspective, bonds can also be said to be a kind of currency, or to be precise, currency is a kind of bond.

So the question is, money is worthless, what about bonds? Is it no longer valuable? The answer is of course.

“The amplitude has increased!” Zhao Weihua’s brain exploded, and he felt as if he was being targeted by a beast.

Although CCB has been suppressing Thunder from the beginning, Zhao Weihua is also confident and ready to exercise the rights at the right time to harvest Thunder’s bullish position in the bond market, but he did not expect that in just a few days, such a huge risk would appear in the market .

Yes, interest rate cuts will push up bond prices, but the increase in inflation caused by interest rate cuts will push down bond prices. Finally… come on, take a gamble.

There is no doubt that bond prices will rise after interest rate cuts are expected to increase. However, Lei Hao ruthlessly raised the bond index yesterday by more than 30 points, making it almost impossible for the market to find any room to rise again. .

But it doesn’t matter. It stands to reason that CCB can exercise the option at a price of 20 points, and they will make money anyway.

However, the market outlook is risky. If the inflation rate is too high, bond prices will fall back.

The question arises, does the reduction in interest rates put greater upward pressure on bond prices, or does the later increase in inflation put greater downward pressure on bond prices?

“The rise in the SET index will only be temporary. In the stock market, after the STE index rises to a certain extent, it should turn downward. We can short-sell at high levels. Of course, the volume and energy must be insufficient. What the company needs to value most , it is the selling orders that appear when the index falls. If we want to build a position, we must absorb these selling orders.”

“In the bond market, I need to maintain a falsely high position of 20 points and wait for CCB to exercise its rights. As long as they dare to take it, we will promote the dispelling of interest rate cut expectations, let the stock market return, and let the bond market be bearish. When necessary, You can directly short-sell the bond market, and HSBC and others still have chips to lend.”

Shanghai Stock Exchange, Lei Lei, and Lei Hao issued instructions to the trading department in Thailand in the office.

The current person in charge of Thunder in Thailand is Su Yongyan. He is Su Yiwen’s nephew, but he also has two skills and can be regarded as a veteran of the company. He has been working since the establishment of Thunder’s Hong Kong Island branch last year.

As a veteran of the Thunder, one attitude is indispensable, and that is to “listen to Mr. Lei.”

“However, the news received from the Financial Regulatory Commission of Thailand is not optimistic, and the forces pushing for interest rate cuts are very strong.” In the video, Su Yongyan hesitated a little.

“Impossible, Kun Yu is playing with fire, and he can afford it.” Lei Hao shook his head.

Future information has already hinted at changes in the Thai market, and Lei Hao can also analyze many conclusions from this information.

Thailand is now the acting prime minister of General Barlow. As Barlow’s nephew, Kunyut is a financial elite. He has his own ambitions and wants to revitalize Thailand’s economy.

However, the political situation in Thailand is very complicated. Lei Hao believes that this time the interest rate cut is expected to be caused by the Financial Management Committee led by Kun Yu.

Thailand’s capital forces hoped to directly finalize the Bank of Thailand’s decision to lower the benchmark deposit interest rate before the market reacted. However, the Financial Management Committee saw that something was wrong and could not completely block the attack of capital forces, so it simply released the pressure to cut interest rates first.

This will cause the market to consume the impact of the interest rate cut first, and the stock and bond markets will respond accordingly. Then the idea of ​​​​earning profits from the interest rate cut will not only fail, but at least there will be a lot less room for profit.

As long as the expenditure is proportional to the income, the Financial Management Committee can cancel the expectation of interest rate cuts. In order to maintain greater profit space, Thailand’s capital forces are likely to accept this suggestion.

This is finance, the ugly stuff when it comes to politics.

For Lei Hao, they have been laying out the Thai market during this period and have established some contacts with financial management authorities such as Kunyu. Lei Hao can intervene in this matter, provided that the market moves in the direction he analyzed.

“The SET index will rise. The Thai baht is still at a relatively low level now. Financial groups such as Siam are allocating funds to make up for speculative losses in the international market. The Thai baht is being rapidly replaced by US dollars. The currency is flowing into our hands. If I am bullish, SET will definitely Up.” After giving instructions to Su Yongyan, Lei Hao turned around and started communicating with Kun Yu again.

In fact, this kind of thing is easy to analyze. Thunder is a large organization that has defeated the capital forces led by the United States in the Korean market. Lei Hao has benefited from the benefits to this day.

The Thunder’s opponents in Thailand temporarily experienced a partial vacuum, so Lei Hao and his opponents had a tacit understanding. Siam sold chips, obtained Thai baht, exchanged them for US dollars, and made up for the book losses in the international market. The Thunder absorbed the chips and exchanged US dollars for Thai baht. , use the profits from the international market to promote the Thai market layout.

This is a tacit understanding. In this case, if others want to intervene, how can it be so simple?

If Lei Hao wants the SET index to rise, financial groups such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan, and Siam will be secretly happy and sell some of their chips at high levels.

Lei Hao will not take over the order at a high position, but will sell short like his opponent. The premise is that the SET index falls back. He also believes that his opponent will not dare to hedge against him at a high position. When both parties short sell at the same time, the SET index will not Falling is a strange thing.

Taken together, the high point is when interest rate cut expectations reach their peak, and at this point all capital forces will be entangled.

Then let’s look at the needs of all parties. The Thai authorities represented by Kun Yu hope to cancel the interest rate cut expectations and allow the Thai market to develop relatively smoothly. This will cause the stock market to fall back and the bond market to see a strange price fall.

The goals of the Thunder and the Thai authorities are the same, but other capital forces are not too willing. Financial institutions such as Siam, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan that have fought with the Thunder hope to reduce their positions at a high level in exchange for funds to offset losses in the international market. Thailand’s local capital forces I hope to cut interest rates and take money from the banking system to make money.

In this case, Lei Hao felt that China Construction Bank would exercise its rights, they would take the bond position, and then… explode.

On December 18, when the Thunder once again raised the price of its bond holdings by more than 20 points, Zhao Weihua was so angry that his liver hurt.

I originally thought that the options contract was a rope around Lei Hao’s neck, but now this rope was used by Lei Hao to fish, and the fish was still CCB’s foreign exchange and reserve business department.

Lei Lei has a tip for latecomers involved in the foreign exchange and savings business. So what if it’s 20 points? In a market with limited capacity, I can bid up the price of the bond so that your options have no effect at all.

But there is a drawback to doing this, that is, Thunder will absorb more bonds. After all, maintaining a high level requires costs. However, what is terrible for CCB’s foreign exchange and reserve business department is that if they dare to exercise their rights, Lei Hao will definitely have to find the excess bonds. If you take the opportunity to sell, then… it will be a trap.