Future chat group - Chapter 859 Dilemma

Now, Lei Hao actually doesn’t need information with such a long time span, because it’s useless if he knows it.

With the size of the Thunder’s funds, when Lei Hao knew the future, he actually changed the future.

In other words, the future is uncertain. If you say a certain index will rise, if I throw tens of billions of dollars into it, it will rise even if it doesn’t.

Therefore, for Lei Hao, trend is not the first thing to know. What he wants to see is the situation of energy and information.

For Lei Hao, the greater the time span of information, the more variables there are in the middle. At the end, the result is basically no longer the result.

Besides, does the Thunder need to know the trend of the U.S. dollar on a certain day in May of the following year in late December? The answer can be yes, but it can also be no.

It is very simple for Lei Hao to close relevant exposures, and he will not plan for this situation 5 months in advance, so this information seems a bit useless.

That night, Lei Hao was a little confused. The next day, after further contact with the Reserve Management Department of the Foreign Exchange Administration, he felt a little nervous.

“China is reducing its holdings of U.S. dollar assets!” Lei Hao analyzed various document signals passed from the Reserve Management Department.

This situation is not difficult to analyze. Even Yu Rong and others can come to the same conclusion after knowing some of the actions of the Reserve Management Department.

It is also normal for China’s foreign exchange reserves to begin to reduce the proportion of U.S. dollar assets.

What many people don’t know is that although foreign exchange reserves are marked with US dollars, they are a whole and are not entirely composed of US dollar assets.

If China has US$3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, there may be sterling assets equivalent to US$100 billion, or there may be Japanese yen assets equivalent to US$100 billion, but whether they are British pound assets or Japanese yen assets, they will be based on the exchange rate. Do the math and write the numbers in dollars.

This is the foreign exchange reserve.

“According to analysis, after the year-end effect has passed, there should be a January effect, with a decline first and then an increase. The market is still operating quite healthily.” An analysis of the market outlook came to Lei Hao’s mind: “The next structural adjustment of Huichuan will be The reduction in U.S. dollar assets is in line with the downward trend of the U.S. dollar.”

“However, the U.S. dollar cannot decline without limit. The U.S. will definitely take countermeasures in the future, which is also in line with the U.S. dollar’s return to volatility.”

“The U.S. dollar first fell and then fluctuated, and then what? The Federal Reserve is going to cause trouble again? Why are you telling me now that there will be a devaluation of the U.S. dollar in May?”

What Lei Hao didn’t understand was that the future was not static, but sometimes, certain things would definitely happen, such as the sun rising from the east.

The two parties currently communicating future information can be said to be the current Lei Hao and the future “Lei Hao”. In other words, the depreciation of the US dollar in May is certain.

“Regardless of why the U.S. dollar has depreciated, why is it important to know this?” Lei Hao’s brain cells were about to die, but he had a vague hunch in his heart: “Could it be that this is a real blackout?” Swan incident?”

The so-called black swan event is a very unpredictable and unusual event. What insiders call a real black swan means that no one can calculate it.

Things like the subprime mortgage crisis and the Asian financial crisis are not black swan events in the absolute sense, because there are traces to follow. Before the subprime mortgage crisis, many institutions actually started short selling. The Asian financial crisis is better understood because it was caused by Events detonated by the power of capital.

At Lei Hao’s level, only natural disasters and man-made disasters are unpredictable, and even only natural disasters and man-made disasters can be predicted.

“If it’s a natural disaster, then…” Lei Hao felt shuddering.

If the market is obviously improving, but you go against the trend and sell a lot of shorts because you anticipate natural or man-made disasters, then the problem will be serious.

Why are you going short? It’s obviously bullish. Do you know something? If it was a man-made disaster, do you have some contact with Uncle Beard and those people? If it was a natural disaster… that would also arouse suspicion.

“But,” Lei Hao’s eyes flashed with confidence: “I am the main force in the market. If the result is confirmed, all I have to do is make the company’s operations look reasonable.”

“Going against the trend? As long as I am the absolute main force, I am the trend. There is no such thing as going against the trend!” Lei Hao gradually understood.

Maybe things will change, but judging himself, he feels that this message is very important and requires a lot of preparation work.

Looking at the global financial market, various economies such as China, Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific have their own demands. China has moved from the stage of holding U.S. dollars to the process of reducing U.S. dollars, promotes the internationalization of the RMB, and wants Chinese capital to go global. .

********, Maritime Silk Road, AIIB and other projects are all serving China’s strategic goals.

Europe has been engaged in de-dollarization. No matter which European country it is, it does not want the world to continue to develop unipolarly. The showdown in the financial field shows that the Europeans want the rise of the euro.

However, the United States is still suppressing the world. In terms of one-on-one competition, no country is its opponent. In the financial field, if the Federal Reserve sneezes, financial markets around the world will catch a cold.

Therefore, a price must be paid for de-dollarization. No matter who strives for a higher status of their national currency in the international market, they must pay the price of depreciation of the US dollar assets in the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves, unless…you close the exposure first , that is, short selling.

For China’s 3 trillion, closing the exposure is simply a joke. As long as the central bank dares to move, the Federal Reserve dares to turn its back, so basically it can only let financial institutions such as Thunder take away the exposure that is hedged by the central bank.

But judging from the actual data, the depreciation and appreciation of the U.S. dollar is almost in the hands of the United States. As long as they are willing to pay the due price, it is just a matter of words to want the U.S. dollar to appreciate or depreciate.

“The risk is too great. This is something that may provoke a financial war.” Lei Hao felt very entangled.

When you are weak, the future is certain. When you are strong, the variables you represent are too great, and the future is not certain.

If you think about it with your toes, you will know that the changes in the value of the US dollar are controlled by the United States. If you determine a trend and you invest enough money to make the other party change the trend, then the trend you determined will not happen.

The dollar is depreciating, so you’re shorting? Okay, 100 billion, you can come as you like, the profit or loss is not big. If you get 180 billion, the United States will pinch its nose to stabilize the currency value, so that you can enjoy the iron fist of the overlord.

But…at the current position of the Thunder, if you want to sublimate it, how can you do it without taking risks? Perhaps this is why the information was delivered five months in advance. This is an opportunity.

Lei Hao was in a dilemma.