Omniscient Investment Point - Chapter 224



Only Noblemtl

224. NASDAQ Hit Listing, and Aftermath – 1

(1)

Liam Christopher hung up the phone after telling Jang Su-myeong the good news. The events of the past flashed before his eyes.

‘Phew, that was hard.’

If I recall the most difficult time for Dr. Carti to go public on NASDAQ, it was probably the fierce internal opposition from the flagship Pioneer.

– A Korean bio startup?

– Isn’t that a very small market?

– No, why Korea, of all the solid American startups?

By the way, the management of the flagship Pioneer was made up of people with considerable bio expertise.

So from this time on, I started digging into the Korean bio industry and Dr. Carty in a scary way.

– The karma is too short. If it’s an anticancer drug, it needs at least 5 years of research.

– It only passed the first phase. Ambassadorial anticancer drugs are the method with the lowest chance of success.

– I think it would take an astronomical amount of money. I’m looking at at least $1.5 billion.

– No matter how high the risk and high the return, investing $1.5 billion would increase the company’s financial burden.

Some staff members even submitted reports.

The content was that since most Korean bio companies have almost no sales and there are no cases of blockbuster new drug development, investments of more than 1 billion dollars should be avoided at all costs.

But Liam Christopher wasn’t deterred.

I refuted each opposing opinion one by one.

– The companies you investigated are listed on the KOSDAQ. Most of them were listed under special conditions, but the Korea Exchange’s listing maintenance regulations are holding them back. They have to generate a certain amount of sales.

In contrast, the United States gives weighted scores to the quality of the pipeline and actual research performance as conditions for maintaining listing.

Naturally, the United States was the place that had to pay more attention to new drug development.

– So, by listing Dr. Carty on NASDAQ, we have to guarantee time and money to dig only one well. And risk? Of course there is. But think about Modern A. Wasn’t there a risk at the time? But because we overcame that risk, our flagship Pioneer became a huge success.

In fact, Flagship Pioneer was a modest venture capital firm before Modern A’s blockbuster success.

However, Modern A has grown into a large venture capital firm with assets under management of hundreds of billions of dollars with just one room.

The problem came after that.

Since launching Modern A, there has never been a single big hit.

– Our company has been going through some really disappointing times. It’s been two years since we managed 100 billion dollars in assets. But what’s it like now? It’s only increased by 1 million dollars. The reason is that we’ve reduced failures and given up on big hits. In other words, if there’s even the slightest risk, we don’t even approach it. It’s called venture capital, but is this really the right path? No, even if it’s the right path, when will we be able to go higher?

There was passion and drive in Liam’s voice.

In fact, it was something he could say, as he was the youngest person to ever be promoted to vice president.

Fortunately, that advice worked.

In fact, it was like gambling with one’s position, but fortunately, Dr. Carty cruised to Phase 2A and received FDA clinical approval in one go.

Even Phase 2 B got very good scores in the interim results, so what if that passes too?

‘It’s not just a blockbuster, it could be a mega blockbuster.’

Evidence that Liam isn’t alone in thinking this way came back in the results of Wednesday’s forecast.

For several weeks, we have been allocating shares to institutional investors by offering IR at $7 to $8, but today we have revised it and presented a guideline of $9 to $10.

However, there were countless institutions that wrote down more than $12 in order to be allocated more shares.

“and…….”

In this situation, would there be any fool who would price the stock below $12? Liam boldly decided on $13.50 and then told Lee Seong-yong and Jang Su-myeong the good news.

Of course, both of them were happy,

“Then, I hope you will come on the listing date.”

– Yes, see you then!

The voice is full of anticipation.

Liam is the same.

However, this anticipation is not simply due to the belief that one can exit with a huge IPO jackpot.

‘Maybe Dr. Kati’s new drug could be a game changer for global bio.’

The bio industry, where proper metabolic anticancer drugs have not yet appeared.

What if Kartip comes out and leads the industry?

‘Our venture capital may be able to grow by more than 10 times its current capital management… … .’

There were people in Korea who had similar dreams to Liam.

That was Jang Su-myeong, and a few days later, he was meeting Lee Seong-yong and Bae Jong-hyeon at the airport.

(2)

The faces of Lee Seong-yong and Bae Jong-hyeon were very memorable.

That was understandable.

Although expectations were high, the demand forecast and public offering price that exceeded those expectations were bound to be unrealistic.

I was also very surprised when I first heard it.

Originally, we thought the market capitalization would be at most 10 trillion won, but it has now increased to 18 trillion won.

‘Even if there is dilution through the issuance of new shares, there will be exit funds of around 2 trillion won.’

Unless we are philanthropists, private equity funds like ours should aim to get our money back.

So, the target amount was half, but we were able to raise ten times the initial target of 100 billion.

No, this was the minimum.

On the plane, I listened to Lee Seong-yong’s expectations.

“I shouldn’t do this, but I keep wanting to eat bubbles.”

“If it’s a bubble… … ?”

“On the first day of listing. In the past, domestic online commercial companies also tripled in value, right? There’s no reason why Doctor Carty shouldn’t do the same… haha… … . Am I being a little too greedy?”

“No, it is possible.”

I smiled and started pumping at Lee Seong-yong’s greed.

“Interest rates are expected to fall starting this year. I don’t know when, but growth stocks tend to bubble up during periods of falling interest rates. Dr. Carty may be the first to do so.”

“Is that so? Haha… … .”

“That’s how it should be. The more money you have, the better. The more money you have, the more money you have. The money that will be spent on new drug development in the future is about 2 trillion won. If we have the actual bullets, we can hire more high-quality resources and conduct clinical trials in a wider range. Above all, we can bring the time forward.”

“That’s right… … .”

The interest rate cut was only a matter of timing; it had to happen sometime this year.

Signs of an economic downturn were appearing here and there, and prices were also somewhat under control.

‘In particular, there is a big election in the United States this year.’

At this point, Bae Jong-hyun, who had been quiet, intervenes.

“It seems that the more data there is, the more opportunities there are to verify the effectiveness of new drugs. There is a reason why the results of the recent Phase 2 B trial have improved. As we increase the number of clinical personnel to the maximum and improve the problems, I feel that the possibility of success is increasing.”

“thank god.”

Listening to Bae Jong-hyun’s words, I have more faith.

If it succeeds in phase 2b and moves on to phase 3, the clinical trial costs will inevitably be astronomical.

But with this IPO, we can secure funds and use that money to increase our data… … .

‘Is my pancreatic cancer really curable?’

As my anticipation builds, I can’t even sleep.

So I arrived in New York in a state of light sleep,

‘and…….’

Strangely, my heart feels open.

It was a crazy illusion, but I felt like America welcomed me.

‘Yes, someday I will sweep this place clean too.’

I try to brag inwardly, afraid that someone might hear.

But I will definitely keep this promise.

After repeating this to myself over and over again, I headed to the hotel.

(3)

It was late at night when Liam Christopher came to the hotel.

Perhaps because he had much more experience with going public than we did, his face was full of composure.

However, he also said that he could not predict the listing the next day.

“I’m looking forward to it, but I have no idea how long it will last.”

“Is that so?”

“Yes, the capital market is always uncertain. It seems impossible to even dare to predict it.”

“yes…….”

“But one thing is certain: many eyes are on Dr. Carty.”

We nodded at those words.

When I came here, I read newspapers, mainly economic newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal… … .

“Yes, it was mentioned a lot in the articles.”

We felt that Wall Street’s interest exceeded our expectations.

“Furthermore, it is difficult to predict even institutions, and these days, the power of individuals is no joke.”

“Is that the case in America too?”

“Yes, that’s right. In the past, there were many individual investors who relied on institutions, but with the development of fintech, they are investing based on their own judgment. It’s safe to say that this is the reason why experts’ economic outlooks are often wrong about the stock market these days.”

This is the same in Korea.

From some point on, a new trend began to appear in our country’s investment market.

The key factor is that as information asymmetry disappears, individuals’ financial knowledge increases.

Because of this, the investment environment has changed significantly over the past two to three years, with numerous individuals making demands to the government and pressuring companies.

The situation seemed to be even worse in the United States, where people were more serious about stocks than real estate.

“This may sound counterintuitive, but individual demand deposits are now over $5 trillion.”

“So you’re saying there are 5 trillion dollars in savings deposits?”

“Yes, that’s right. We have $5 trillion in accounts excluding stocks and real estate assets. For reference, before COVID, it was just over $1 trillion.”

“ah…….”

Even before Corona, the U.S. stock market was the most consistently upwardly trending market in the world.

But, demand deposits have increased fivefold since then?

“Maybe that’s why, since then, there have been very few experts who have been able to predict the stock price of a company that has gone public. This time, it’s the same. Some experts predict a market cap of over $38 billion, while others predict it will drop below $100 as soon as it goes public.”

“Yes, I saw that too.”

Whether here or there, the view is always different.

38 billion, that is, from 50 trillion won to 12 trillion won, the gap is too big.

“Then, I guess we can expect that median value.”

“Yes, please consider it to be around 20 billion dollars.”

20 billion dollars is over 24 trillion won.

This was also beyond the expected category, so the expressions on the faces of Lee Seong-yong and Bae Jong-hyeon, excluding me who was asking the question on their behalf, were no joke.

Perhaps my expression was no different from theirs.

‘Will that really happen?’

Why can’t I sleep even though I’m tired?

Because the absurd market cap kept flashing before my eyes.

But the next day, something even more ridiculous happened.

『Dr. Carty, after going public, skyrockets, market cap exceeds $40 billion… … .』

It was a total hit, we had to hold our trembling hearts and look at the monitor several times.